Market Setup of the Day: Pitting a Strong USD vs. the Turkish Lira


The US Dollar is still steadily gaining value. This continuance of gains can be attributed to the price of oil futures gaining as well. We can also add in the strong possibility of a rate increase by the US Federal reserve of key interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates for the first time in 2016 at a two-day meeting that will begin on Tuesday. Markets are already pricing in nearly a 100 percent chance for a quarter percentage point increase to the Fed's target range of 0.25 to 0.50 percent.

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"It's not so much about what the Fed does, but more about what they say," says Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo. Traders have increased the number of positive bets on the U.S. dollar for a third straight week through Dec. 6, pushing net longs to their highest level since early January, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The Turkish Lira (TRY)  fell more than 1 percent on Monday, because of data that showed Turkey's economy was shrinking for the first time since 2009.
This pairing has the potential to see the USD leverage an advantage over the TRY if the current trends continue.